Interview: "The Horn's energy transition will not run on Europe's timetable"
An energy economist argues the cost of finance is the variable that actually sets the pace.
The argument in this conversation is about sequencing, not about technology. Renewable resources in the region are abundant and cheap to operate; what is scarce is capital priced at a rate that lets a twenty-year asset pay for itself.
Grid capacity is the second constraint. Generation can be built in eighteen months; the transmission to move it and the distribution to sell it take longer and attract less concessional interest.
Demand is treated too casually in most plans. Industrial load has to exist for capacity to be worth building, and industrial load depends on reliable supply — a circle that has to be broken deliberately at one point.
The conclusion offered here is modest: the transition happens at the speed of the cheapest available finance, and every timetable written elsewhere should be read with that in mind.